Meteorogical Institute, Universität Bonn, Germany

Researcher and academic teacher in meteorology, research interest in meteorological extremes, probabilistic weather and climate forecasting and stochastic dynamics.

Extreme weather and probabilistic forecast approaches

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particularly extreme weather conditions. However, for certain lead times which depend on the scale of the phenomenon, they provide reliable forecasts of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the sub-scale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on a-priori physical reasoning establishes a-posterior a statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. We will present approaches to derive probabilistic forecasts for (extreme) local weather.